Consistently very poorly controlled asthma, as defined by the impairment domain of the Expert Panel Report 3 guidelines, increases risk for future severe asthma exacerbations in The Epidemiology and Natural History of Asthma: Outcomes and Treatment Regimens (TENOR) study.

BACKGROUND Identification of patients at risk for asthma exacerbations can assist physicians in addressing disease management and improve asthma-related health outcomes. OBJECTIVE We sought to evaluate whether level of impairment, as defined by the 2007 asthma guidelines, predicts risk for future asthma exacerbations. METHODS The study included children aged 6 to 11 years (n = 82) and adolescent/adult patients aged 12 years and older (n = 725) from The Epidemiology and Natural History of Asthma: Outcomes and Treatment Regimens study with data representing all components of the impairment domain of the asthma guidelines at baseline, month 12, and month 24. Patients were categorized into 2 cohorts: (1) consistently very poorly controlled (VPC) asthma from baseline through 2 years of follow-up and (2) improved from VPC asthma at baseline (including patients who improved to not well-controlled or well-controlled asthma), with improvement maintained through 2 years of follow-up. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for risk of asthma exacerbations at month 30 were generated by using multivariable logistic regression by age group. RESULTS After adjustment, children with consistently VPC asthma over the 2-year period demonstrated a 6-fold increased risk of hospitalization, emergency department visit, or corticosteroid burst (OR, 6.4; 95% CI, 1.2-34.5) compared with the improved group. Adolescent/adult patients with consistently VPC asthma were more likely to have a corticosteroid burst (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.7-4.8) or have a hospitalization, emergency department visit, or corticosteroid burst (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.9-5.3). CONCLUSIONS Consistently VPC asthma, as defined by the impairment domain of the 2007 asthma guidelines, is strongly predictive of future asthma exacerbations.